"Cost" of running production buildings.

[SpaceSquirrel]

I'm not sure why, but I just made up a spreadsheet to analyze the "value" of the production buildings.

Since this post is rather long, detailed, and mathematical, I thought I'd start a new thread for it.  The original EC Thread introducing the production buildings is at:

http://www.brettspielwelt.de/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=EmeraldCity;action=display;num=1139153860

Anyone have links to the best "out of town" info?  I may start trying to build up my German skills again now that I'm really into the meta-game and am starting to think of potential improvements.

First off, an interesting consequence of the activation fee always being rounded down is that the production buildings are cheaper to run if the town has an odd number of citizens (activation fee is more likely to be rounded down).

With 37 citizens, we activated at the "50 level" for a target of 37*50 = 1850.  The activation fee is 1% of 1850 = 18.5 rounded down to 18, so we paid 18 wood, stone, ore, and food.  (Does anyone remember when it was activated and did anyone check to see that's what happened?)  Until the capacity is filled or we tear it down, every resource we generate (and receive) playing games in town has a 10% chance of being processed into a wool.

The "cost effectiveness" of the building depends on what % of each resource we generate in town.  I just finished several hours worth of "forum archaeology" and found estimates for EC's resource production to be:
Wood:  35-55% say 50%
Stone:  5-15% say 10%
Ore:    0-10% say  5%
Wool:  10-25% say 10%
Food:  20-40% say 25%
Does anyone have their own "best guess" as to what is produced?

The production buildings will "produce" an additional:
prod = ( 0.1 * Cap ) * (1 - %Nat)
Where capacity is the capacity the plant is set for and %Nat is the % of resources generated in the city that are "naturally" of the type generated by the building.
The "cost" of these is the activation feel plus the resources that were changed.  

The lower the % of the resource naturally produced, the more "efficient" the production building is because fewer units of the production capacity (which had to be "purchased" by the activation fee) are "used up" by having a 10% chance to change a wool into a wool.

Estimating our resource generation at 50% wood, 10% stone, 5% ore, 10% wool, 25% food and buy prices of 40 for wood/stone/food and 45 for ore/wool I get:
The activation fee of 18 wood/stone/ore/food causes:
92 wood, 18 stone, 9 ore, 46 food to become 165 wool.
Those resources (including the activation fee) could sell for about 8500-9000 taler or about 50-55 per wool.

If resource prices eventually stabalize about where they are now, using the production buildings will likely be a little more expensive than trading with other towns, but quite possibly worth the convenience factor.  If ore continues to be priced close to or above wool, and we antipicate being able to use ore (for building or selling / trading tools), a mine might be more efficient than a sheep farm.  

Wool/cloth still seems to be hands down our "limiting resource" tax wise though.

--SpaceSquirrel

[PaulW]

Ah, I remember when I was first on the board and posted these type of calculations...

I know I gave you whatever I was tracking resource wise.  I think DQ had a computer problem and lost some of his data.

Since I'm tracking what games are played by Munchkins, if you had a clue on what game generates what resources you might be able to get some information from those stats.

[SpaceSquirrel]

I don't think the game played has any influence on what resources are generated, only what city it's played in (and now, what production buildings are running).

I've been making frequent notes of our resources when online.  Especially when we have a production building running, this should help enable me to get a decent estimate of the breakdown of each type of resource generated in town as well as resources generated in town vs. out of town.  At least for the moment, I'm recording the date/time, what the town totals are, the remaining capacity of the farm, and what's in the marketplace.

Now if only a puppet could be made to record those things, but thus far I haven't been able to find any way for a puppet to see what the resource #ers.  With /cityinfo they can get the total talers, but that's the least interesting # of all.

--SpaceSquirrel

[PaulW]

I don't think the game played has any influence on what resources are generated, only what city it's played in (and now, what production buildings are running).

Really?  So if 3 people play a game of Emerald (level 1 taxable game) and 3 people play a game of Caylus or PR (level 4 taxable game), we will generate the same resources?  

I never looked into that deep, but I do think that the game is a factor.  It would be easy enough to test.

[Lardarse]

The game is an influence is how many are produced, just not which resources...

Although back in my old town, me and xandern were sure that our Funkenschlag room generated over 50% wood...

LA

[PaulW]

The game is an influence is how many are produced, just not which resources...

Ah, I knew it was a factor.  If SS is trying to figure out how much resources we produce, he will need to factor it in.

I took a bit more of a big picture point of view...

[Don_Quijote]

How many resources are generated per game can be calculated here. Without any gurantee that this is correct of course, as the details are not published.

In the table is a value for each game. The resources produced by a game is calculated with the following formula. I assume you know about the distribution probability (in-town, out of town, etc.)

Code:

Resources = (Number of Players -1) x Game Value

DQ

[Elttil]

First off, an interesting consequence of the activation fee always being rounded down is that the production buildings are cheaper to run if the town has an odd number of citizens (activation fee is more likely to be rounded down).

Perhaps we need a new recruiting policy that dictates all new citizens must bring a friend.  ;D

If resource prices eventually stabalize about where they are now, using the production buildings will likely be a little more expensive than trading with other towns, but quite possibly worth the convenience factor.

I agree. From a purely economic stand-point, the type of production building should be whatever the most expensive resource is. That way each conversion that happens is profitable and helps pay for the activation fee. However, with every town quickly realizing this, the price of wool has dropped dramatically and along with ore was barely above the other resources when I last checked (around 10% max difference). With flat market prices, then the production buildings and lab are not very practical from an economic standpoint, but they still serve the purpose of being convenient for our esteemed ambassador who is relieved of having the trade as much for the resources we need. If the ambassador ends up buying any resources at the market, then the production buildings break even with a flat market due to the 10% loss when buying and selling.

As for the resources we earn, knowing the games played doesn't help much because you won't know where those games were played and who else was involved in the game. The best way to know is to watch our resource counts over a period of time, and then factor in taxes, mill/forge work, trades, and buy/sell action. Obviously a job for the ambassador. ;)

This thread is great for general discussion, but please share any specific earnings amounts through e-mail rather than posting in this thread. Thanks.

[SpaceSquirrel]

The ambassador already has a pretty important job, so for now I'm doing the watching of resources earned as well as taxes paid, and just asking DQ to make note of trades and any buy/sell activity in the marketplace.

[PaulW]

As for the resources we earn, knowing the games played doesn't help much because you won't know where those games were played and who else was involved in the game. The best way to know is to watch our resource counts over a period of time, and then factor in taxes, mill/forge work, trades, and buy/sell action. Obviously a job for the ambassador.

I would be curious to see compair the max we could earn to what we did.  To see if the % of time we earn resouces is roughly stable over time.  If it is you could make that assumption going forward.

It is harder to track every trade, etc. and now you have me starting up the mill\forge\lab from time to time.

[PaulW]

so for now I'm doing the watching of resources earned as well as taxes paid

Hopefully I can take some of that off your hands sometime next week, if all goes well.

[Elttil]

The ambassador already has a pretty important job, so for now I'm doing the watching of resources earned as well as taxes paid, and just asking DQ to make note of trades and any buy/sell activity in the marketplace.

That works too. One other thing that needs to be included if you're tracking money as well is any landscaping that's done. I'll forward you the costs of all the trees and bushes we plant.

I put a simple earnings calculator in my resource spreadsheet when I was the ambassador. I recorded our resources and money at the start and end of a time period. I had a line for trades and another for taxes. I never sold at the market because prices were so high, but that could easily be added along with tracking town expenses for landscaping. The mill/forge work can be calculated from the difference in cloth/tools so there's no need to record it. The lab's a different story since it's unpredictable so it must be recorded. Add a few formulas and that does it!

Even though this isn't too difficult, it does require the bookkeeping, so I like Paul's idea of getting an estimate based on the games played. Once enough samples have been done to fine tune it, it would make for a nice predictor.

[PaulW]

Even though this isn't too difficult, it does require the bookkeeping, so I like Paul's idea of getting an estimate based on the games played. Once enough samples have been done to fine tune it, it would make for a nice predictor.

Yep, keeping the books straight is the tricky part.

I'll should have LA stuff done by the end of the weekend, then I'll focus on a few things for SS and DQ.  I have another gig now that's paying me for some development work on the side.  So I'm sneeking in the EC inbetween the paying gig.

I'll have to see if that estimate idea is going to work.  If the % of resources earned jumps around too much then their will be too much play in the numbers to make it worth while.  Still our resources per day when I tracked it seemed fairly stable, the % might be too.